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Some ways to analyze the reliability of predicted values arising in the activities of social systems

Lebedev Aleksey Victorovich  (Doctor of technical science, master of physics and mathematics science, Professor of Tver branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration )

The article deals with some issues related to the accuracy of the predictions of statistical values, as well as methods of analysis the reliability of predicted values. The values over, got as a result of prognostication of statistical indexes of frames of society and some banal estimations of their rightness, are brought. Criteria are discussed for judgement about quality of temporal rows of prognoses, for example, of point of turn. It is shown that a criterion of quality of prognosis is not invariant in relation to replacement of variables, that it is especially important at forming of some new variables. Integral criterion prediction accuracy is proposed and designed.

Keywords:data of social systems, forecast, forecast accuracy.
 

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Citation link:
Lebedev A. V. Some ways to analyze the reliability of predicted values arising in the activities of social systems // Современная наука: актуальные проблемы теории и практики. Серия: Естественные и Технические Науки. -2017. -№11. -С. 44-48
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